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马克.杭波特对于黄金下跌的评论  

2011-03-18 08:52:07|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Gold: Sell first — and then ask questions

黄金:先卖完再问为什么

Commentary: No apparent fundamental reason for gold’s drop

评论:对于黄金的下跌,没有明显的根本原因

That appears to be what gold traders did earlier this week, when their actions caused bullion to suffer a huge decline — falling more than $30 alone on Tuesday.

这周开始黄金投资者所做的事情好像又出现了,由于他们的一些动作,黄金出现大跌——星期二跌了30多美元。

Consider whether or not there are good fundamental reasons for gold to have fallen so much.

考虑一下,黄金大跌是否有一些根本性的原因呢?

The default explanation, of course, is that bullion’s decline somehow traces back to the Japanese earthquake and the ensuing crisis.

当然有种默认的解释是说黄金的大跌原因要追溯到日本大地震以及随后的危机。

But I’m not so sure why.

Consider what is perhaps the most-invoked rationale for investing in gold: It’s ability to hedge against worsening inflation. Isn’t that rationale even more compelling now than it was before the Japanese earthquake hit last week?

考虑一下投资黄金的最大原因可能是黄金可以作为通货膨胀的对冲。那么在上周日本地震后这个依据是否在减弱呢?

For example, the crisis undoubtedly will lead the Japanese government into spending a lot more money in coming years than previously planned — both in rebuilding the earthquake-ravaged regions, as well as in maintaining the value of the yen in foreign-exchange markets.

举例来说,这次危机无疑将导致日本政府在来年比计划花费更多的日元到两个领域:1、地震受灾区域的重建,2、在外汇市场保持日元的价值。

In addition, most analysts now seem to agree, the Japanese crisis makes it all but certain that the Federal Reserve in the U.S. will inaugurate yet another round of quantitative easing — QE3 — following the termination of QE2 this coming June 30.

另外,大部分分析师都似乎在赞成这个观点:日本的危机将会导致美联储定制第三轮的宽松货币政策,接着6月30号第二轮结束后。

Other things being equal, this should lead to more inflation, not less.

其他的情况不变,这将导致更高的通货膨胀,不会降低。

Another oft-cited rationale for investing in gold: It’s a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. But aren’t the horrors we’re witnessing in Japan a textbook illustration of just that kind of uncertainty?

投资黄金的另外一个原因是:它是地缘政治不确定性的一个对冲。而这次日本地震所导致的恐慌不正是教科书里最典型的那种地缘政治不确定性吗?

Indeed, Reuters has reported, premiums for gold bars in Tokyo jumped earlier this week to $1 per ounce, up from zero last week and a discount in the weeks prior to that. That is just what we would expect, given the desire to hedge against uncertainty — and suggests that it’s not reduced Japanese demand that is the culprit in gold’s recent plunge.

的确,路社报所报道的一样,东京这周的金价有上涨1美元每盎司,比上周的0美元要多,比上上周的要少一点。这就是我们所预期的一样,黄金投资是地缘政治不确定性的对冲。所以。地震没有减少日本的黄金需求,也就是说地震不是金价下跌的罪魁祸首。

Drops as big as gold’s in recent days, especially when unaccompanied by any obvious fundamental reason, often occur when bullish sentiment rises to excessive levels. And, sure enough, bullishness among gold timers rose earlier this month to its highest level in two years.

黄金这几天的大跌,特别是这样没有明显的根本原因时,通常是出现在上涨情绪达到过渡的程度时。同时,可以肯定的是,黄金的看张行情在这个月的上旬达到了他这两年的最高水平。

Unfortunately for gold, bullish sentiment has pulled back only slightly from those overheated levels. This suggests to contrarians that more downside action may be needed to wring enthusiasm out of the gold traders.

不幸的是,对于黄金来说,买多情绪只从那个过渡线拉回来一点点。这个建议卖空的投资者:将会有更多的下跌来使得黄金交易者的热情冷却下来。

Only then can we expect gold to begin responding more straightforwardly to the fundamentals.

只有到那时以后,我们才期望能从基本面来分析黄金的走势。

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

马克杭波特是杭波特金融设计的创始人,自1980年来他有给过超过160条金融方面的时事通讯建议。

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